A recent investigation by Reuters has confirmed that a prototype of an Extreme Ultraviolet lithography machine is now operational in China. This development is not merely a technical milestone; it likely marks the beginning of a massive structural reorganization of the global semiconductor industry.
For the past five years, strict export controls led many to believe that China’s advanced process technology would lag several generations behind the global leaders. However, the operation of this Extreme Ultraviolet prototype in Shenzhen suggests that those technological barriers are thinning. While the industry leader ASML has commented that replicating such complex technology is far from easy, this "hybrid device born of necessity" has captured global attention. Although it has not yet reached the stage of mass-producing high-performance chips, it is significantly accelerating China’s roadmap toward semiconductor independence.
By leveraging reverse engineering of secondary market components and attracting top-tier global talent, China is constructing a supply chain system entirely independent of Western technologies. Industry projections suggest that this independence could be fully realized between the years twenty-twenty-eight and twenty-thirty. Such a shift would fundamentally alter the risk landscape for global supply chains.
This technological divergence implies that the future semiconductor market may split into two parallel ecosystems. This trend will impact not only the manufacturing of processors but also the supply and application of critical materials such as silicon dioxide, gallium nitride, and aluminum oxide. As China continues its intensive investment in Extreme Ultraviolet lithography, the complete decoupling of the global semiconductor market is shifting from a theoretical scenario to an unavoidable reality that all stakeholders must now address.
