Market research firm TrendForce has released a startling forecast for the memory market. Conventional DRAM contract prices are projected to rise by fifty-five to sixty percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter. This surge comes on the heels of a significant forty-five to fifty percent increase already witnessed in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The AI Effect: Why Prices Are Soaring
The primary driver behind this aggressive price hike is the artificial intelligence boom. Major DRAM suppliers—including industry leaders like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—are drastically reallocating their production capacities. To meet the insatiable demand for AI servers, these manufacturers are prioritizing advanced manufacturing processes for Server DRAM and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).
Supply Chain Constraints
As wafer capacity shifts toward these high-margin AI products, the supply of conventional DRAM used in personal computers and smartphones is being severely restricted. This "crowding out" effect has created a tight supply bottleneck for consumer electronics, forcing prices upward at an unprecedented rate.
Market Outlook
With United States-based Cloud Service Providers aggressively locking in production capacity to secure their AI infrastructure, the shortage for the general market is expected to persist. For consumers and businesses planning hardware upgrades, the first half of 2026 represents a period of historically high component costs.
